1.0 Dictator Abiy: The Man of Many Faces
Abiy Ahmed is a man of identity crisis, identifying himself as both Oromo and Amhara depending on the political atmosphere. Abiy served in the Ethiopian Army during the brutal TPLF regime, rising to the rank of lieutenant general. He later joined the TPLF’s main partner in crime, OPDO (the TPLF puppet party in Oromia), and entered parliament in a one-horse race. The TPLF appointed him to the intelligence sector, the epicenter of security abuses.
1.1 The Hijacking of the Qerro Revolution
The Qerro movement was a non-violent struggle against the brutal EPRDF regime, primarily targeting the TPLF and OPDO. From 2011 to 2018, the movement staged peaceful demonstrations, ultimately forcing the system to succumb to pressure and relinquish power for a peaceful transition to democracy. OPDO leveraged its parliamentary majority to elevate Abiy Ahmed to the premiership, ostensibly to lead a reform agenda. However, Abiy hijacked the revolution, charting his own path of political deception. In his first act, Abiy called back his main political threat, the OLF, from Eritrea in 2018, only to imprison or kill its leaders. To date, OLF leadership has faced mysterious deaths (such as Jaal Bate Urgesa) or imprisonment (like Jaal Abdi Ragasa and other comrades).
1.2 Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission (ENDC)
Why the Dialogue is Doomed to Fail
The Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission lacks credibility and inclusivity as it is currently constituted by Dictator Abiy Ahmed. It is a movement with no substantial goals, only predetermined outcomes to credit Abiy as a peace agent. ENDC is a step in the wrong direction, misappropriating public funds for initiatives destined to fail. The commission lacks relevance due to its failure to address many underlying issues:
- Independence – ENDC is merely a tool for Abiy’s agenda, rubber-stamping his decisions.
- Lack of Impartiality – ENDC was constituted solely by the government and its cronies, many of whom are implicated in crimes against humanity.
- Imbalance of Power – As the employer, Abiy controls the narrative and the outcome.
- Objectivity – ENDC is a tool for prolonging war and buying time at the expense of citizens’ lives, while presenting Abiy as a peace lover to the international community.
- Inclusivity – The commission lacks real opposition political parties, failing to include key political players. Thus, it is a sham scheme by Abiy to paint himself as a saint of peace.
1.3 Abiy: A Liar and Master of Falsehood
Dictator Abiy Ahmed has perfected the art of falsehood, deceiving both the global community and locals. He frequently boasts about his achievements and Ethiopia’s progress, presenting the country as a paradise on Earth. He claims Ethiopia is food sufficient and on a positive economic trajectory. However, the reality contradicts his claims:
- In December 2023, Ethiopia defaulted on its loan obligations with the IMF, causing its credit rating to slide to ‘CCC.’
- A humanitarian aid shortage of 5.9 billion Birr was reported by the Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission (EDRMC).
- According to IOM and OCHA 2024 reports, 4.4 million Ethiopians are internally displaced due to political turmoil.
- The country’s debt burden is skyrocketing, with a USD 1 billion external debt payment due by FY2024 (July 2024) and a USD 2 billion payment expected by FY2025.
- A Eurobond maturity in December 2024 will require an annual coupon payment of USD 33 million.
- As of December 2023, Ethiopia’s foreign reserves were below USD 1 billion, making imports nearly impossible.
- As of 2024, WFP data shows 20 million civilians need food aid in Ethiopia.
- The inflation rate is above 23%, with independent estimates placing it above 30%.
These issues, coupled with the human death toll in the millions due to constant war, reveal the grim reality that Abiy Ahmed downplays while focusing on maintaining his grip on power. Ambiguous visions and rhetoric with zero actions are the hallmarks of his tyrannical rule since 2018.
1.4 Why Abiy is Not a Trusted Partner in Any Dialogue
A. Abiy used Eritrea to settle political scores against his mentors (TPLF) and leveraged this to win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. Today, he is a threat to the peace and security of Eritrea, which he used as a springboard for his Nobel win. His attempts to access the Red Sea by force have soured relations between the two nations, showcasing his untrustworthy nature.
B. The return of dominant political forces in Oromia reveals Abiy’s untrustworthiness. In 2018, the OLF leadership returned to Ethiopia to open a new political chapter, only for Abiy to imprison or kill key figures. Denied a political platform by Abiy’s repressive rule, the Qerro movement took up arms. The overall commander of the OLA forces, Kumsa Diriba (Jaal Maroo), emerged from this movement. Abiy’s fear of the OLA’s political influence forced him to arrange a sham meeting with OLA leadership in Zanzibar, which the OLA declined, recognizing it as a trap.
C. When Abiy went to war with TPLF, he was humbled into signing a peace deal in South Africa. His delays and evasions regarding the Pretoria Peace Agreement indicate his intention to initiate future conflicts, further proving his untrustworthiness.
D. Abiy does not respect international laws, violating Article 2(4) of the UN Charter by infringing on Somalia’s territorial integrity. His legally deficient agreements with Somaliland threaten armed confrontation between Somalia and Ethiopia, risking international peace and security. By December 2024, Somalia expects all Ethiopian troops in ATMIS to leave, potentially weakening the mission and allowing the resurgence of al-Qaeda-linked groups like Al Shabab. This only cements the belief that Dictator Abiy Ahmed is not a genuine agent of peace, both locally and internationally.
With the 🖊 Idris Waqo
