As Abiy Ahmed gauges the posture of his patron in the Middle East war before he starts his own war in the north, he is poised to deploy a series of incendiary cards over the coming weeks and months.
The Finfinnee card: he intends to dangle the prospect of incorporating Finfinnee into Oromia, a gambit designed to rekindle Oromo-Amhara hostilities. Mid-level cadres have already been tasked with preparing a document to serve as the basis for a draft proclamation.
The election card: by now, the notion of “election” has been reduced to little more than a performance staged for foreign consumption. With over seventy percent of the country beyond the reach of any credible electoral process, Abiy can only orchestrate a hollow ritual within a few urban enclaves. Major independent parties have either already withdrawn from the process or are participating in the capital solely to avoid deregistration—or to expose the charade before exiting. All remaining parties in the process are either created by or colluding with the regime.
The Qeerroo card: Abiy is deploying co-opted individuals to hijack the movement’s name and symbolism in an attempt to fracture the Oromo youth. Dressing regime loyalists in the garments of struggle with banners of “silencing the gun among brothers’—while the majority of the Qeerroo remain silenced and unemployed—is an exercise in futility.
The religion card: In recent weeks, Abiy’s agents carried out massacres against Orthodox Christians in Arsi; subsequently, his mayor presided over conciliatory talks with Orthodox fathers in the capital. Deepening these sectarian wounds while projecting an air of piety remains very much on the table.
The border dispute card: Abiy will stoke disputes along the borders of Oromia—particularly in Wollega—and across the country. Plans are already underway to inaugurate an “Amhara movement in Wollega” to start the flame. Other fault lines are equally primed: the borders between Oromia and Amhara, Oromia and Somali, and the ones between Amhara and Tigray. Wherever ambiguity exists, he intends to set it ablaze.
The “constitutional reform” card: to bait some in the Amhara elite, Abiy plans to promise quick creation of smaller regional states carved from the existing ones—whether through a manipulated constitutional process under Article 47 or the hollow theatre of national dialogue. Among the territories under discussion is “the regional state of Wolkait”, and a few other zones in Oromia and Amhara.
Stakeholders across the country have largely deciphered Abiy’s moves. The only result he will achieve by pulling these levers is civilian casualties. International partners must immediately exert pressure to protect the civilian population. The OLA will provide further details, as necessary.
OLF-OLA High Command
March 23, 2026