ONM-ABO May 26, 2024
Over the past 150 years, many leaders have risen from warlords to kings, presidents, and prime ministers. This unchecked ascent often brings bloodshed and destruction, leading to a nation’s collapse or hindrance rather than its development. Historically, wars have not been nation-builders but rather harbingers of disintegration and decline. For instance, prolonged conflicts contributed to the fall of the Soviet Union and have diminished the global leadership of the United States due to its involvement in numerous wars since World War II. Examples include Korea, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Grenada, Haiti, Iraq, Afghanistan, ISIS, Syria, and currently Ukraine. Additionally, the negative policies towards Africa have further contributed to the waning influence of the US.
Ethiopia is not immune to the adverse effects of prolonged conflict. One primary cause of Ethiopia’s underdevelopment is the continuous emergence of war-breeding regimes that suppress one national group while favoring another. Policies of national oppression, economic marginalization, exclusion from cultural life, absence of the rule of law, and governmental focus on national domination have perpetuated endless wars.
Recently, the US embassy in Addis Ababa advised the Ethiopian government to seek peaceful negotiations with opposition forces, a recommendation that could help heal the nation’s wounds. However, this advice appears to be falling on deaf ears. The state has an obligation to save Ethiopia by moving towards political plurality and cultural diversity.
The government’s refusal to negotiate and its continued efforts to crush armed opposition by force is a perilous step. The belief that military might can solve the country’s issues is misguided. War should be the last resort in resolving political challenges.
If the current Ethiopian government continues to prioritize war, it could inadvertently pave the way for freedom for multiple oppressed nations within the country. The disintegration of Ethiopia could ignite a regional crisis, spreading instability across the Horn of Africa and creating a massive refugee crisis.
Two major outcomes could arise from Ethiopia’s deepening crisis. First, Ethiopia might disappear from the map in its current form, replaced by multiple independent nations with a new and stronger federal system. Second, regional power dynamics could shift, with emerging powers like Iran, Turkey, and India, alongside a potentially economically revitalized Kenya, stepping in to fill the void left by a declining Ethiopia.
These new nations, likely covering Oromia and the Southern regions, might forge closer ties with Kenya and Somalia rather than Eritrea. The current Ethiopian government’s reliance on military solutions, under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, is seen as a path toward the country’s demise, digging its grave by counting on weapons rather than pursuing peace.
Author: Liben Waqo
Editor: Dr. Hambisa Belina
