It has long been evident that criminality and deception are not mere anomalies in Abiy Ahmed’s Ethiopia- they are the defining ethos and the very machinery of governance. Time and again, the regime has resorted to manipulation, coercion, and violence to maintain a semblance of grip on power.Its latest attempt to co-opt Oromia’s opposition has only spurred more dangerous schemes. Currently, the OPDO-PP regime is working tirelessly on a fresh wave of calculated violence and deception across Oromia, with repercussions for the entire country and broader region.
1. Escalating Ethnic-Based Attacks
Following the regime’s carefully choreographed December 2024 spectacle of “surrendering” Shene fighters, crimes targeting civilians had subsided for a few months. However, beginning in early March 2024, Oromia has witnessed a disturbing resurgence of kidnappings in North Shewa (near Garba Guracha, Sululta, and Goha ‘Tsion), and brutal massacres in Horro Guduru Wollega.
Preliminary evidence confirms that kidnappings are being carried out by criminal elements masquerading as freedom fighters. While we cannot yet definitively prove the regime’s direct link and involvement, it remains responsible. Not because we expect this regime to fulfill its basic obligation to protect citizens- we long ago abandoned such illusions–but because these crimes systematically occur in areas saturated with the regime’s security forces. The attacks also follow predictable patterns in similar locations, making them entirely preventable, if they were not the regime’s own making.
There is also a growing body of precedent. These criminal operations follow a disturbingly professionalized model, with ransom payments consistently flowing through formal banking systems. Two years ago, when a foreign embassy in Finfinnee shared reports of a kidnapping blamed on the OLA, we offered straightforward advice: follow the money. The paper trail led directly to a bank account controlled by an ENDF intelligence officer-irrefutable proof of state sponsorship.
Simultaneously, the regime is actively enabling systematic massacres in Horro Guduru through a criminal group called “Fanno in Wollega”-forces originally trained, armed, and deployed by Abiy Ahmed to fight the OLA. While these death squads now enjoy nominal independence, their mission continues unchanged: the deliberate massacre and eviction of Oromo civilians from their ancestral territories. This calculated campaign serves two strategic purposes for the regime: (1) constructing an ethnic conflict narrative pitting Oromos against Amharas, and (2) fabricating a security crisis to coerce 0romo political support under the guise of Amhara aggression into Oromia. The criminals who massacre our people have their own goals within the regime’s broader agenda.
The regime’s strategy follows a clear, destructive pattern. In North Shewa, staging kidnappings and killings of Amhara civilians- crimes deliberately designed to be blamed on 0romo groups. Simultaneously, in Horro Guduru Wollega, the regime allows “Fanno in Wollega” to massacre Oromos while pointing fingers at the Amhara. It is a coordinated, dual-theatre of horizontal ethnic provocation.
2. Transforming Wollega into Another Wolkait
Abiy Ahmed is cynically engineering another tinderbox of ethnic conflict- unequivocal evidence that the regime will stop at nothing to create new flashpoints of ethnic violence between the two largest communities in the country. Abiy has mandated the creation of a committee supposedly “advocating for Amhara rights in Wollega”-akin to the Welkait Amhara Identity Committee that fuelled the Tigray-Amhara conflict.
The existing fractures between these communities-serious as they are- apparently fail to satisfy the regime’s appetite for chaos. With chilling calculations, the regime is engineering an even more destructive agenda, one capable of tearing apart the nation’s fragile social fabric. The preservation of “Fanno in Wollega” as a paramilitary proxy and the orchestration of Horro Guduru’s recent atrocities aren’t isolated incidents. They represent coordinated components of a single, sinister blueprint for controlled destabilization.
This deliberate Wolkait-style transplantation of ethnic polarization to Oromia should alarm all Oromos and Amharas equally. This calculated escalation threatens consequences far beyond the immediate region with the potential to create another permanent, state-engineered conflict zone in Ethiopia’s already fractured political geography. Regional stakeholders and the international community must pay attention before this manufactured crisis becomes irreversible.
3. Another Disinformation Campaign
At lower cadre levels, the regime is actively constructing a facade of Oromo support through selected local and diaspora proxies. It is cobbling together a coalition that includes diaspora supporters of former OLA members expelled for disciplinary violations and now serving regime interests, ex-Qeerroo activists co- opted into the regime’s orbit, and opportunistic political operatives embedded within Finfinnee’s opposition circles. There are plans to begin with a conference in the name of Qeerroo Forum. Their primary function is to cynically appropriate the symbolism and legacy of the Qeerroo movement, and create an illusion of popular backing for Abiy Ahmed in Oromia. Simultaneously, the aim is also deepening divisions within 0romo society.
4. Fabricating a Puppet “Opposition” Party
Behind closed doors, there are working plans to create a new political vehicle staffed by regime loyalists–currently working as advisors, think tank analysts, and policy operatives who will simply trade their current regime credentials for opposition labels. This manufactured political alternative is said to serve two key functions in the regime’s playbook: (1) providing legitimacy to the discredited “national dialogue” forum by masquerading as Oromia’s representatives, and (2) acting as a controlled opposition in future elections, if any, to maintain the illusion of political competition.
OLF-OLA High Command
April 12, 2025
